Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?
PolymarketOpen, closes Nov 3, 2026$2,289 traded
79%
Yes · bid 77%, ask 80%
Midpoint of the order book Langbot recorded
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
70% to 80% (+10 pts)Nov 2, 4:29 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
78% to 70% (−8.5 pts)Nov 2, 4:10 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
72% to 78% (+6.5 pts)Nov 2, 3:51 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
80% to 74% (−6 pts)Nov 2, 3:01 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
74% to 80% (+6 pts)Nov 2, 2:23 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Michigan" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Michigan has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Hampshire Senate election.
This market will resolve to "New Hampshire" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Hampshire has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Michigan Senate election.
If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- Ticker
- pm_5091423
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2026
- Category
- Elections
The same question on Kalshi
Test an idea on this market
Replay the recorded event with your strategy against the order books that were really there, with real fees and timing, before you risk money.
Test an idea on this market