What will JD Vance say during midterm rally in Rome, New York originally scheduled for November 2, 2026?
BidenKalshiOpen, closes Nov 16, 20262,902 contracts traded
82%
Yes · bid 81%, ask 82%
Last traded price, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close · filled marks: hits that count; hollow: heard, not counted
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
58% to 82% (+23.5 pts)Nov 2, 6:15 AM ET
- “biden”, heard on the call: unclear
63% to 58% (−5 pts)Nov 2, 6:03 AM ET
- “biden”, heard on the call: unclear
82% to 63% (−19 pts)Nov 2, 6:02 AM ET
- “biden”, heard on the call: unclear
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If JD Vance says Biden as part of midterm rally in Rome, New York originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
How this is resolved Video of the midterm rally in Rome, New York originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the midterm rally in Rome, New York originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 will be used.
Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.
Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.
Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
Langbot listens for “biden”, “bidens”, “biden's”.
- Ticker
- KXVANCEMENTION-26NOV02-BIDE
- Closes
- Nov 16, 2026
- Category
- Mentions
On the record for this market
Every time a phrase this market settles on was heard, who said it and whether it counts under the rules, plus the text posted about it. Facts only, held 60 s behind live.
| When | What | Who or where | Under the rules |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 6:02 AM ET | “biden” | On the call | Unclear · 0 of 1 · speaker not verified: only JD Vance counts |
| Nov 2, 2:26 AM ET | “biden” | On the call | Unclear · 0 of 1 · speaker not verified: only JD Vance counts |
| Nov 2, 12:38 AM ET | “biden” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only JD Vance counts |
| Nov 2, 12:24 AM ET | “biden” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only JD Vance counts |
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