Will Trump say "Rare Earth" before Dec 1, 2026?
KalshiOpen, closes Dec 1, 2026214 contracts traded
81%
Yes · −4.5 pts in 24 h · bid 76%, ask 86%
Midpoint of the order book Langbot recorded
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
48% to 80% (+32.5 pts)Nov 2, 3:59 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
81% to 48% (−33 pts)Nov 2, 3:46 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
75% to 79% (+4.5 pts)Nov 1, 11:44 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
89% to 77% (−12 pts)Nov 1, 10:33 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
75% to 79% (+4 pts)Nov 1, 1:46 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If Rare Earth, or a plural or possessive form of Rare Earth, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Payout criteria The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.
Doesn't count for payout Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count.
Grammatical/tense inflections.
Langbot listens for “rare earth”, “rare earths”, “rare earth's”.
- Ticker
- KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-RARE
- Closes
- Dec 1, 2026
- Category
- Mentions
Test an idea on this market
Replay the recorded event with your strategy against the order books that were really there, with real fees and timing, before you risk money.
Test an idea on this market