Will Trump say "Third Term" before Nov 2, 2026?
KalshiOpen, closes Nov 2, 202625.2K contracts traded
1%
Yes · −7.5 pts in 24 h · bid 0%, ask 1%
Midpoint of the order book Langbot recorded · filled marks: hits that count; hollow: heard, not counted
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
26% to 12% (−14.5 pts)Nov 1, 10:15 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
17% to 26% (+9.5 pts)Nov 1, 10:03 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
23% to 12% (−10.5 pts)Nov 1, 1:57 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
10% to 23% (+13 pts)Nov 1, 1:42 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
16% to 10% (−5.5 pts)Oct 31, 8:05 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If Third Term, or a plural or possessive form of Third Term, is stated by Donald Trump before Nov 2, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Payout criteria The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.
Doesn't count for payout Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count.
Grammatical/tense inflections.
Langbot listens for “third term”, “third terms”, “third term's”.
- Ticker
- KXTRUMPSAY-26NOV02-THIR
- Closes
- Nov 2, 2026
- Category
- Mentions
On the record for this market
Every time a phrase this market settles on was heard, who said it and whether it counts under the rules, plus the text posted about it. Facts only, held 60 s behind live.
| When | What | Who or where | Under the rules |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 5:39 PM ET | “third terms” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only Donald Trump counts |
| Nov 1, 5:39 PM ET | “third terms” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only Donald Trump counts |
| Nov 1, 12:39 PM ET | “third term” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only Donald Trump counts |
| Nov 1, 12:39 PM ET | “third term” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only Donald Trump counts |
| Nov 1, 9:26 AM ET | “third terms” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only Donald Trump counts |
| Nov 1, 9:26 AM ET | “third terms” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only Donald Trump counts |
| Nov 1, 6:39 AM ET | “third terms” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only Donald Trump counts |
| Nov 1, 6:39 AM ET | “third terms” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only Donald Trump counts |
| Nov 1, 4:39 AM ET | “third terms” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only Donald Trump counts |
| Nov 1, 4:39 AM ET | “third terms” | On the call | Does not count · 0 of 1 · another voice: only Donald Trump counts |
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