How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026?
At least 5KalshiOpen, closes Feb 1, 202710.2K contracts traded
5%
Yes · bid 17%, ask 54%
Last traded price, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
12% to 16% (+4 pts)Nov 3, 5:09 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
17% to 12% (−5 pts)Nov 3, 4:55 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
14% to 17% (+3 pts)Nov 3, 4:36 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
9% to 14% (+4.6 pts)Nov 3, 3:21 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the number of non-incumbent candidates endorsed by Elon Musk after Issuance who are elected to federal office in elections held before Nov 4, 2026 is at least 5, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market counts the non-incumbent candidates who receive explicit public endorsements from Elon Musk after Issuance (Jun 4, 2025) and before Nov 4, 2026 and who are subsequently elected to federal office in the United States in elections occurring after Issuance (Jun 4, 2025) and before Nov 4, 2026.
Special elections count if they occur before Nov 4, 2026.
"Endorsed by Elon Musk" means an explicit statement of support posted by Elon Musk that unambiguously states he endorses, supports, or backs the specific candidate for the specific federal office.
Retweets, likes, replies, or ambiguous statements do NOT constitute endorsements.
Making any monetary contribution (including in-kind contributions) to a candidate's campaign, political action committee, or affiliated organization, as reported by any Source Agency, is also considered an endorsement.
Participating in any of the following campaign activities for a candidate is considered an endorsement: Speaking at a campaign rally, fundraiser, or official campaign event Appearing in campaign advertisements or promotional materials Serving in an official campaign role (e.g., campaign chair, advisor, surrogate) Hosting or co-hosting a fundraising event "Non-incumbent" means a candidate who is not currently serving in the specific federal office they are seeking at the time of the election.
A member of the House running for Senate is considered a non-incumbent for the Senate race.
"Federal office" means only: United States Senator, United States Representative, President of the United States, or Vice President of the United States.
"Elected" means the candidate has been officially certified as the winner by the relevant state election authority.
If Musk endorses a candidate after they have already been elected, this does not count toward the total.
If Musk withdraws an endorsement before the election occurs, and explicitly states he is withdrawing support, the candidate no longer counts as endorsed.
- Ticker
- KXMUSKCHALLENGERS-26-5
- Closes
- Feb 1, 2027
- Category
- Elections
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