Will the margin of victory for Jimmy Gomez in CA-34 be at least 5 percentage points?
Jimmy Gomez, 5+ ptsKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027153 contracts traded
7%
Yes · bid 3%, ask 12%
Midpoint of the order book Langbot recorded
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
No move of three points or more on the record.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If Jimmy Gomez wins the 2026 U.S.
House of Representatives election in California's 34th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Jimmy Gomez minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Jimmy Gomez if Jimmy Gomez wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Jimmy Gomez loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
If Jimmy Gomez runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Jimmy Gomez will be summed.
If Jimmy Gomez wins the election, the margin will be positive.
If Jimmy Gomez loses the election, the margin will be negative.
If Jimmy Gomez ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
For uncontested races where Jimmy Gomez is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
- Ticker
- KXMIDTERMMOV-CA34JGOM-P5
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
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