Will the margin of victory for Connie Chan in CA-11 be at least 4 percentage points?
Connie Chan, 4+ ptsKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027431 contracts traded
10%
Yes · bid 5%, ask 15%
Midpoint of the order book Langbot recorded
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
No move of three points or more on the record.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If Connie Chan wins the 2026 U.S.
House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Connie Chan minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Connie Chan if Connie Chan wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Connie Chan loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
If Connie Chan runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Connie Chan will be summed.
If Connie Chan wins the election, the margin will be positive.
If Connie Chan loses the election, the margin will be negative.
If Connie Chan ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
For uncontested races where Connie Chan is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
- Ticker
- KXMIDTERMMOV-CA11CCHA-P4
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
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