Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Arkansas be at least 14 percentage points?
Cotton, 14+ ptsKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 20272,675 contracts traded
40%
Yes · −16 pts in 24 h · bid 36%, ask 44%
Last traded price, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
39% to 44% (+5 pts)Nov 3, 10:15 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
44% to 39% (−5 pts)Nov 3, 10:09 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
40% to 44% (+4 pts)Nov 3, 5:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
47% to 41% (−6 pts)Nov 2, 10:34 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
56% to 47% (−9 pts)Nov 2, 7:43 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S.
Senate election in Arkansas by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.
If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive.
If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative.
If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
- Ticker
- KXMIDTERMMOV-ARSENR-P14
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
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