Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 10 percentage points?
Dan Sullivan, 10+ ptsKalshiOpen, closes Nov 3, 2027552 contracts traded
0.5%
Yes · −7.1 pts in 24 h · bid 0.1%, ask 1%
Last traded price, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
26% to 2% (−24 pts)Nov 3, 11:07 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
8% to 26% (+18.3 pts)Nov 3, 9:30 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 U.S.
Senate election in Alaska by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation.
"Dan Sullivan" refers to Daniel S.
Sullivan, the incumbent Senator.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Sullivan minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Dan Sullivan if Dan Sullivan wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Dan Sullivan loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
If Dan Sullivan runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Dan Sullivan will be summed.
If Dan Sullivan wins the election, the margin will be positive.
If Dan Sullivan loses the election, the margin will be negative.
If Dan Sullivan ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
For uncontested races where Dan Sullivan is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
- Ticker
- KXMIDTERMMOV-AKSENDSUL-P10
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
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