Will exactly 2 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?
KalshiOpen, closes Dec 31, 20269,449 contracts traded
11%
Yes · bid 7%, ask 15%
Last traded price, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
23% to 11% (−11.9 pts)Nov 3, 4:53 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
9% to 23% (+13.6 pts)Nov 3, 4:45 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If exactly 2 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win.
This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls.
Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses.
If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts.
Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group.
If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.
- Ticker
- KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-2
- Closes
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- Elections
Test an idea on this market
Replay the recorded event with your strategy against the order books that were really there, with real fees and timing, before you risk money.
Test an idea on this market