Will the court extend its block on DHS's Trump ads?

If the U.S.

District Court for the Southern District of New York extends the October 11, 2026 temporary restraining order and Section 705 stay, or replaces it with a preliminary injunction or stay, so that DHS funds remain barred from paying for the challenged advertisements after October 25, 2026, in Common Cause v.

Department of Homeland Security, No. 1:26-cv-08882 (S.D.N.Y.) before Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The ruling must: Be issued by the U.S.

District Court for the Southern District of New York in Common Cause v.

Department of Homeland Security, No. 1:26-cv-08882 (S.D.N.Y.) Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision An order extending the October 11 order is a ruling on the substantive relief, not an administrative or scheduling order.

It counts however short the extension, including one the parties agree to and the court enters as an order, and it counts if issued by any judge of the court.

A written order that replaces the October 11 order with a preliminary injunction or Section 705 stay counts if the bar on using DHS funds for the challenged advertisements continues after October 25, 2026.

Partial continuation counts.

A qualifying order counts when issued, even if it is later stayed, vacated, or reversed.

The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: The October 11 order expiring or being dissolved, or the case being dismissed or mooted A scheduling order, conference notice, or briefing order that does not itself continue the order in force An order of the Second Circuit or any court other than the Southern District of New York, or a ruling in the DNC's separate case in the District of Columbia A decision by DHS or the White House to stop or pay for the advertisements, or an agreement not entered as a court order Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Orders to show cause For clarity: Sua sponte rulings count if they match the specified judgment If multiple judges issue separate opinions, the majority/plurality opinion controls