Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?
KalshiOpen, closes Jan 3, 20270 contracts traded
5%
Yes · bid 2%, ask 7%
Midpoint of the order book Langbot recorded
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
30% to 5% (−25.5 pts)Nov 2, 2:04 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
35% to 30% (−5 pts)Nov 2, 2:04 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S.
House or Senate seats is at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
A candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the relevant election authority identifies the candidate as Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, by petition without a party designation, or an equivalent no-party designation.
Candidates identified with a political party do not count.
Endorsements and post-election caucus affiliation do not affect the count.
- Ticker
- KXINDCOUNT-27JAN03-AL4
- Closes
- Jan 3, 2027
- Category
- Elections
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