Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Sep 1, 2026?
KalshiSettled No475K contracts traded
No
Settled Sep 1, 2026 · opened at 44%
Venue price history · ring: settled No (0%), not a trade
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
30% to 18% (−12 pts)Jun 1, 12:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
15% to 30% (+15 pts)May 30, 2:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
43% to 32% (−11 pts)May 2, 7:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
53% to 42% (−11 pts)Apr 11, 4:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
43% to 53% (+10 pts)Apr 10, 1:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
- Ticker
- KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01
- Closes
- Aug 31, 2026
- Category
- Politics
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