Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Jan 1, 2027?
KalshiOpen, closes Dec 31, 2026550K contracts traded
30%
Yes · +0.5 pts in 24 h · bid 28%, ask 31%
Midpoint of the order book Langbot recorded
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
30% to 62% (+32.5 pts)Nov 2, 12:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
30% to 49% (+19.5 pts)Nov 1, 9:32 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
40% to 16% (−23.5 pts)Nov 1, 12:47 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
51% to 29% (−21.5 pts)Nov 1, 3:10 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
19% to 51% (+32 pts)Nov 1, 2:52 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If Donald Trump publicly criticizes Kevin Warsh before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, "publicly criticize" means Donald Trump must: Make a statement that explicitly expresses disapproval, negative judgment, or unfavorable assessment of Kevin Warsh The criticism must be directed at Kevin Warsh by name, title, or clear contextual reference that a reasonable observer would understand refers to Kevin Warsh in a clear and unambiguous manner The statement must be negative in substance, not merely mentioning Kevin Warsh in a neutral or positive context Criticism must be made by Trump personally, not through official statements that don't quote him directly.
Langbot listens for “publicly criticize”.
- Ticker
- KXDJTATTACKWARSH-27-JAN
- Closes
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- Politics
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