Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in August 2026?
KalshiSettled No1,044 contracts traded
No
Settled Sep 11, 2026 · opened at 97%
Venue price history · ring: settled No (0%), not a trade
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
79% to 4% (−75 pts)Jun 29, 5:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
7% to 79% (+72.5 pts)Jun 15, 11:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
17% to 7% (−10 pts)Jun 13, 4:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
38% to 23% (−14.5 pts)Jun 12, 3:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
52% to 38% (−14.5 pts)Jun 11, 9:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.6% in the twelve months ending August 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown
- Ticker
- KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T4.6
- Closes
- Sep 11, 2026
- Category
- Economics
Test an idea on this market
Open it in the Langbot app to see the market brief, set alerts on its phrases and test a strategy on the events Langbot has recorded.
Test an idea on this market