Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in August 2026?
KalshiSettled No10.7K contracts traded
No
Settled Sep 11, 2026 · opened at 51%
Venue price history · ring: settled No (0%), not a trade
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
25% to 10% (−14.5 pts)Sep 6, 3:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
28% to 46% (+18.5 pts)Aug 24, 6:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
50% to 33% (−17 pts)Aug 15, 11:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
67% to 51% (−16 pts)Jul 29, 6:00 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
95% to 67% (−28 pts)Jul 17, 12:00 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending August 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
- Ticker
- KXCPICOREYOY-26AUG-T2.4
- Closes
- Sep 11, 2026
- Category
- Economics
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