Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
KalshiOpen, closes Jan 2, 2027132K contracts traded
2%
Yes · −4.4 pts in 24 h · bid 1%, ask 3%
Last traded price, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
0.2% to 4% (+3.7 pts)Nov 3, 8:41 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
5% to 0.2% (−5.2 pts)Nov 3, 8:24 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If Michigan has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers.
For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage.
For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts.
For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.
If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.
If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used.
In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally.
Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.
- Ticker
- KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MI
- Closes
- Jan 2, 2027
- Category
- Elections
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