angbotStart free

Markets

Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

KalshiOpen, closes Jan 19, 202712.9K contracts traded

9%

Yes · 0 pts in 24 h · bid 8%, ask 9%

Test an idea on this market
100%50%0%
Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5

Last traded price, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close

What moved it

The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.

  1. 9% to 1% (−8 pts)Nov 3, 11:37 PM ET

    Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.

  2. 2% to 9% (+7 pts)Nov 3, 10:27 PM ET

    Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.

  3. 18% to 2% (−16 pts)Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET

    Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.

  4. 9% to 18% (+9 pts)Nov 3, 9:02 PM ET

    Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.

  5. 12% to 9% (−3 pts)Nov 3, 8:24 PM ET

    Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.

The rules

Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.

If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers.

For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage.

For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts.

For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages.

For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.

If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used.

In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally.

Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.

The market on Kalshi

Ticker
KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-TX
Closes
Jan 19, 2027
Category
Elections

Test an idea on this market

Replay the recorded event with your strategy against the order books that were really there, with real fees and timing, before you risk money.

Test an idea on this market

Embed this chart

Free to put on any page. It updates with the record and links back here.

<iframe src="https://langbot.ai/embed/markets/kalshi/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20-tx" title="Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?" width="100%" height="380" style="border:0" loading="lazy"></iframe>