Markets

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. drop out of the Alaska U.S. Senate race before Sep 1, 2026?

KalshiSettled No6,125 contracts traded

No

Settled Sep 1, 2026 · opened at 42%

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Aug 24Aug 26Aug 28Aug 30Sep 1

Venue price history · ring: settled No (0%), not a trade

What moved it

The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.

  1. 11% to 3% (−7.5 pts)Aug 27, 1:00 AM ET

    Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.

  2. 15% to 19% (+4 pts)Aug 25, 12:00 PM ET

    Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.

  3. 20% to 15% (−4.5 pts)Aug 25, 11:00 AM ET

    Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.

  4. 33% to 18% (−15.5 pts)Aug 24, 3:00 AM ET

    Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.

  5. 45% to 33% (−12 pts)Aug 23, 2:00 PM ET

    Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.

The rules

Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.

If Daniel J.

Sullivan Jr. drops out of the 2026 Alaska U.S.

Senate race before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

“Dropped out” means any of the following: the candidate announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign the candidate files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities the candidate publicly states they are no longer seeking the office the candidate endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running the candidate is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal The following do NOT constitute dropping out: Losing a primary or election Failing to qualify for debates or ballots Temporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing Being eliminated through the normal election process Reducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate Key provisions: Once someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter “Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless the candidate explicitly states they remain a candidate Withdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot Each market in this event resolves independently.

A candidate not named in this event dropping out does not resolve any market here.

The market on Kalshi

Ticker
KXAKDROPOUTAUG-26-DSULJR
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
Category
Elections

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