2-year U.S. Treasury yield up in next 15 mins?
Target Yield: 4.59728%KalshiSettled No131 contracts traded
No
Settled Nov 2, 2026
Last traded price, then the order book Langbot recorded to the close · ring: settled No (0%), not a trade
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
31% to 1% (−30 pts)Nov 2, 3:14 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
51% to 19% (−32 pts)Nov 2, 3:13 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
20% to 51% (+31 pts)Nov 2, 3:12 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
52% to 5% (−47 pts)Nov 2, 3:11 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
48% to 20% (−28 pts)Nov 2, 3:07 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the close yield (%) of the 1-minute Pyth candlestick for 2-year U.S.
Treasury ending at 3:15 AM EST on Nov 2, 2026 is at least the opening target yield, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick for 2-year U.S.
Treasury ending at 3:15 AM EST on Nov 2, 2026.
The 2-year U.S.
Treasury refers to the US2Y, the current on-the-run benchmark of the 2-year U.S.
Treasury Note as identified on the Source Agency.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 5 decimal places.
Yields are expressed as annualized percentages.
The opening target and settlement yield each use the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick immediately preceding their observation time.
For a 4:45–5:00 PM EDT market, the opening target uses the candle timestamped 4:44 PM, ending at 4:45 PM; settlement uses the candle timestamped 4:59 PM, ending at 5:00 PM.
Candlesticks are timestamped by their start time.
If reliable Pyth data is unavailable, the contract’s no-data provisions apply.
- Ticker
- KX2YRRATE15M-26NOV020315-15
- Closes
- Nov 2, 2026
- Category
- Financials
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