Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.88% by Sep 30, 2026?
4.89% or aboveKalshiSettled Yes2,435 contracts traded
Yes
Settled Sep 11, 2026 · opened at 81%
Venue price history · ring: settled Yes (100%), not a trade
What moved it
The largest moves on the record and what Langbot heard or read just before each one. Timing, not cause.
90% to 96% (+5.5 pts)Sep 10, 1:08 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
95% to 90% (−5 pts)Sep 10, 12:55 PM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
87% to 92% (+4.5 pts)Sep 10, 9:22 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
72% to 90% (+18 pts)Sep 10, 8:58 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
78% to 72% (−5.5 pts)Sep 10, 8:26 AM ET
Nothing on the record in the ten minutes before.
The rules
Kalshi's rules, as the venue wrote them.
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S.
Treasury is above 4.88% on any business day between Sep 9, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How this is resolved This market covers the period between Sep 9, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S.
Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.
Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.
- Ticker
- KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H-T4.88
- Closes
- Sep 11, 2026
- Category
- Financials
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